Pervez Musharraf was sworn in as Pakistan's civilian
president today after doing what opposition leaders
in his country and the Bush administration have been
asking him to do for some time -- resign as army
chief. The move has helped clear the way for
elections early next year. But those elections will
be neither free nor fair unless Mr. Musharraf does
much more to restore the rule of law, and repair the
damage he's done to Pakistan's civil society and
constitution.
Mr. Musharraf's desire to change Pakistan's politics
-- the justification for a 1999 coup ousting then
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif -- remains unfulfilled.
Indeed, Mr. Sharif's return to Pakistan on Sunday,
after eight years in exile, points out the poverty
of Mr. Musharraf's idea of reforming Pakistani
politics without democratic political participation.
Mr. Sharif, it would seem, was allowed to return in
the hope that his old rivalry with another former
prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, would be rekindled
and ideological polarization would enable Mr.
Musharraf to remain in power.
Although Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif agreed to a
"charter of democracy" last year and represent
strong populist constituencies, their ideological
differences are quite pronounced. Ms. Bhutto stands
for modernity and identifies closely with the West.
Her Pakistan Peoples Party is the country's largest
political organization that describes itself as
Social-Democratic, and has feuded often with
Pakistan's entrenched civil-military oligarchy. She
spent her years in exile writing in American and
English publications, and lecturing at U.S.
universities. Her opposition to Islamist extremism
and jihadism is unequivocal.
Mr. Sharif, on the other hand, is a religious
conservative who started his political career as a
protégé of former military dictator Gen. Zia-ul-Haq.
In his tenure as prime minister, plagued by
accusations of corruption, he tried to impose
Shariah law in the country. After the 1999 coup, he
was jailed and then exiled to Saudi Arabia after
promising to stay out of politics for 10 years. He
returned to Pakistan on a special plane provided by
King Abdullah.
Overall, Mr. Sharif is more acceptable to the
religious elements within Pakistan's army and
intelligence services that ran Pakistan before 9/11,
and remain influential within the country. He, too,
is opposed to Islamist terrorism, but is likely to
be more compromising towards extremist groups. The
fact that Ms Bhutto's homecoming rally was targeted
by suicide bombers, while Mr. Sharif faced no such
threat, highlights the different attitude of
Islamist terrorists towards the two leaders.
Mr. Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League is divided into
two factions, one led by him and the other
supporting Mr. Musharraf. Even if Mr. Musharraf
seems averse to the idea, many in the Pakistan army
and intelligence services would like the two
factions to unite, in the hope that pro-jihadi
elements within the security services could then
reassert their influence.
While the U.S. appears to be giving mixed signals to
Mr. Musharraf, the British Commonwealth's decision,
to suspend Pakistan's membership until certain
benchmarks for the restoration of democracy are met,
is the right message for Pakistan's military
leadership. Although Mr. Musharraf has stepped down
as army chief, he has not lifted the Nov. 3
imposition of martial law disguised as a state of
emergency. He has also issued decrees that allow him
to wield draconian powers even after he lifts the
state of emergency. Mr. Musharraf's hand-picked
Supreme Court has rubber-stamped all his decisions,
while the majority of judges of the original court
remain under house arrest.
Yes, legislative elections have been scheduled for
Jan. 8 and more than 5,000 of the estimated 8,000
people arrested under the emergency decree have been
released. But these partial steps are meant to
silence critics without changing the reality on the
ground.
Few Pakistanis believe that a free and fair election
can be held without a free judiciary, a free media
or freedom for political parties to campaign. Many
candidates and campaign workers of major opposition
parties remain in prison. Mr. Musharraf has stacked
the Election Commission and the caretaker cabinet,
which under Pakistani law must be neutral during the
run-up to elections, with his own supporters.
U.S. public opinion is solidly against Mr.
Musharraf's autocratic measures. According to a poll
by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News this week,
50% of those surveyed said "yes" in response to the
question, "Do you think the United States should cut
off aid to Pakistan until the state of emergency is
lifted and democracy is restored?" Thirty four
percent disagreed and 16% expressed no opinion.
The Bush administration, however, seems willing to
let Mr. Musharraf get away with suspending
Pakistan's constitution and sacking independent
Supreme Court judges now that he's resigned his army
post and promised to hold elections. The
administration's reasoning appears to be based on
the limits of U.S. influence within Pakistan, and
the need for gratitude toward an ally in the war
against terror. But Mr. Musharraf's stepping down as
army chief and holding elections in an atmosphere of
intimidation would not make Pakistan a democracy. It
would make Pakistan resemble many of America's
Middle Eastern allies, notably Egypt, where
elections are routinely held and a weak civil
society survives at the sufferance of a dictatorship
subsidized with American aid.
For his part, Mr. Musharraf is unhappy with even the
limited criticism of his policies by U.S. officials.
He has said that he feels "let down by the West" and
"betrayed by the media." He recently spoke of Ms.
Bhutto as "the darling of the West" -- a disparaging
reference to stalled U.S. efforts for a negotiated
transition to democracy that would have accommodated
Mr. Musharraf as a civilian president and allowed
Ms. Bhutto's election as prime minister.
Yet it is Mr. Musharraf, not Ms. Bhutto, who has
received billions of dollars in aid from "the West"
and personal praise from a long list of U.S.
luminaries ranging from President Bush to former
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Mr. Musharraf has
been proud of his American connections, citing on
more than one occasion U.S. support since 9/11 as
somehow conferring legitimacy on his military
regime. Now, however, it is useful for him to
pretend the West has turned its back on him and
through no fault of his own.
In doing so, Mr. Musharraf is following in the
footsteps of the Shah of Iran, Ferdinand Marcos of
the Philippines and Manuel Noriega of Panama.
Challenged by their own people, each one of these
U.S.-backed authoritarian rulers blamed the America
for failing to understand their compulsions, and for
creating the circumstances that eventually led to
their downfall.
The uproar against Mr. Musharraf has been caused by
his disregard for Pakistan's constitution and his
disrespect for the rule of law -- not by his support
of U.S. policy in the region and the war on terror.
Last Saturday's deadly terrorist attacks outside
Pakistan's military headquarters prove that martial
law has not improved the Pakistani government's
ability to fight terrorists.
The way forward does not lie in legal or political
maneuvers by Mr. Musharraf, or for the military to
cling to power. This would only result in greater
instability. A better course would be the creation
of a government of national consensus, comprising
secular and moderate politicians and civic leaders.
Such a government could mobilize popular support for
the war against terrorism and prosecute that war
effectively, while ushering in a transition to
democracy through free, impartial and fair polls.
Yesterday, President Bush helped clarify U.S. policy
by saying Mr. Musharraf has "got to suspend the
emergency law before elections." He might also make
it clear to Mr. Musharraf that foreign policy
cooperation does not give him license to trample
Pakistan's constitution underfoot.
Mr. Haqqani, director of Boston University's Center
for International Relations, is the author of
"Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military" (Carnegie
Endowment, 2005). He's also served as adviser to
several Pakistani prime ministers, including Ms.
Bhutto.