After years at the heart of her country's tussle with democracy, Benazir
Bhutto left Pakistan in early 1999 for an overseas speaking tour, and
she's never gone back.
As
soon as she was safely out the way, she was convicted of corruption.
Later that year, the army staged its latest coup. And when 9/11
transformed General Musharraf from mildly embarrassing military dictator
to an invaluable ally in the war on terror, it looked as though her stay
in the political wilderness might be permanent.
Suddenly, though,
Pakistan
is abuzz with talk that she is on her way back.
It
could almost be a repeat performance of 20 years ago, when, as the heir
of a famous politician father hanged by the military, Ms Bhutto flew
back from exile to confront an earlier Pakistani dictator to wild
popular acclaim.
"General Zia ul Haq, the military dictator, was still alive and well
entrenched in power, but when her plane landed in Lahore it was an
amazing scene," says journalist Zaffar Abbas. "It was like an ocean of
people pouring in from all parts of the
Punjab
province, from her native
province
of Sindh, all over. In Lahore the streets were jam-packed with people."
I
witnessed for myself Ms Bhutto's huge popular appeal at that time - the
vast rallies in defiance of the army, the tear gas-laced clashes between
protesters and police. A lot of it was to do with a burning desire to
bring back democracy. But there was also something about this young,
aristocratic political novice which galvanised the support of the sweaty
masses.
"You
could see her to some degree as a Princess Diana figure," says Anatole
Lieven, a long-time Pakistan watcher now based in Washington. "She does
represent something for ordinary Pakistanis, of which the progressive
legacy of her father - at least progressive rhetoric - is one, glamour
is another, opposition to military rule is a third."
Of
course, you can't take the comparison too far. I first saw her, already
revelling in her powers of rhetoric, presiding over the Oxford Union
debating society. Happy days, as her friend Victoria Schofield recalls.
"She
wasn't someone who was buried away in a library. She used to go
socialising, she had a lot of friends, and in later years it was those
friendships she thought back to, because it was a very happy period for
her."
Hero
worship
It
wasn't to last very long. In 1977, her father, the Pakistan Prime
Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was deposed in a military coup. Two years
later, after being tried for murder, he was hanged.
That
shock changed her life. Before, she was set to become a diplomat. Now
she felt she had to take up his mantle. It seems telling that when the
Pakistani scholar Akbar Ahmed recently asked her to name a role model,
she chose Fatima, daughter of the Prophet Mohammad.
"Her
voice began to waver and I could see the sense of strong identification
going through her own mind, about her own father, and that Fatima had to
carry on the legacy of her father because the prophet had no sons," he
says.
Being her father's daughter gave her a start. But the years she spent in
prison after his execution - much of it in solitary confinement -
legitimised her. When the military dictator Zia-ul Haq died in a
mysterious air crash, the first free and fair elections in years swept
her into power.
It
was a high point - for her and for Pakistan - never to be regained.
Twice-elected prime minister, she was twice dismissed on charges of
corruption, which she denies. There were powerful forces arrayed against
her, including Islamic fundamentalists who hated having a woman in
charge, and the army, who just hated the Bhuttos. But the verdict on her
time in office is at best patchy.
|

With Margaret Thatcher when both were in power |
"During her two periods in government, she actually
achieved very little, both for the poor of
Pakistan
but also for progressive causes such as rights of women," says British
academic Anatole Lieven.
Lawyer and human rights activist Asma Jehangir, of Lahore, points out
that there were also achievements. "The first women were elevated as
judges to the superior court. Media was opened up during her tenure for
women's rights issues, and it did spread amazing amount of awareness
during that period of time. But women expected that she would undo all
the legacy of the past, which obviously she was unable to do."
And
has her career been tainted by the corruption allegations against her?
Yes, says Ms Jehangir. "But everything is relative in Pakistan, because
the people who were in the forefront of demonising her for corruption
turned out to be more corrupt that her, or at least perceived to be."
Power sharing
Unlike 20 years ago when Ms Bhutto returned to Pakistan to confront a
military dictator, if she goes back this time, it will be after doing a
deal with one. General Musharraf would probably stay on as president,
and corruption cases against her would probably be dropped. Some would
see it as selling out. And with officials in
London
and Washington more enthused about the possibility of her return than
many Pakistanis, this could also work to her disadvantage.
"People talk about the three As - America, Allah and Army - and they're
quite cynical," says Dr Ahmed. "They know that America has to be on
board for any politician to succeed, because that means international
legitimacy, it means economic aid, and all kinds of support."
It's
easy to see why
Washington
should be keen to prod the president and Ms Bhutto to tie the knot.
Islamic radicals are on the war path in
Pakistan,
al Qaeda is regrouping on its turbulent borders. The general badly needs
some political legitimacy - and she is still probably the country's most
popular politician.
But
any power-sharing deal won't be smooth sailing, says Anatole Lieven.
"This is in some ways surprising, because they are both in their
different ways very secular, liberal figures. But of course as a result
of events of recent years, they also detest each other.
"I
think class has something to do with that. He comes from a middle class
background, made his way through the military. He has a visceral dislike
of these populist aristocrats who he sees frankly as frauds, using their
money to buy power in politics."
And
Ms Bhutto has been brought up to hate the army, which did after all hang
her father. So difficult times ahead. And
Washington
would probably also be mistaken if it's banking on Bhutto to tackle
Islamist militants head-on. She's shown no inclination to do that in the
past. Her recipe for dealing with extremism is more subtle.
"People are very poor, and the extremists go to poor families and
recruit their children as soldiers in irregular militias, which then set
up camps to go and conduct attacks on Nato," she has said. "So I think
this is an issue where we have to mix the use of force along with
development."
Ask
for her solution to any of Pakistan's problems, and the answer almost
always comes back to the need for democracy. Given her own failings
while in office - and those of other civilian politicians - it's hard to
buy that completely. In her heart, maybe even Ms Bhutto harbours some
secret doubts.
Whatever drives her on, what's not in doubt is her willingness to make
sacrifices. She's already lost a father and two brothers to Pakistan's
tempestuous politics and she's well aware that its would-be rulers risk
coming to a sticky end.
"The
Bhuttos are a very courageous family," says Anatole Lieven. "And you
could say the other side of her tremendous personal pride and ambition
is that she is a very brave woman."
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